Process / pipelineForesight and future studies
Foresight Scenario Method
The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises.
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方法图谱
相关方法的邻域——选择一个节点以展开探索。
来源
- Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40. link ↗
- Varum, C. A., & Melo, C. (2010). Directions in scenario planning literature – a review of the past decades. Futures, 42(4), 355-369. DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.021 ↗
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 22). Scenario Method for Foresight. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/science-technology-studies/foresight-scenario-method
选用哪种方法？
将本方法与其最相近的同类并置，并排研读——本馆将书籍铺陈于案上，取舍则由您定夺。
- Horizon ScanningScience Technology Studies↔ 比较
- Technology DelphiScience Technology Studies↔ 比较
- Technology ForesightScience Technology Studies↔ 比较
- Technology RoadmappingScience Technology Studies↔ 比较