方法对比

	Foresight Scenario Method	Technology Roadmapping
领域	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1995	2004
提出者	Paul Schoemaker, drawing on Herman Kahn and the Shell/intuitive-logics tradition	Robert Phaal, Clare Farrukh, David Probert (Cambridge T-Plan); Motorola/Corning origins
类型	Structured future-construction process	Time-based strategic-planning process
开创性文献	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.	Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. J. P., & Probert, D. R. (2004). Technology roadmapping—a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(1-2), 5-26.
别名	Scenario planning, Intuitive-logics scenarios, Scenario building	Technology roadmaps, Strategic roadmapping, T-Plan roadmapping
相关	4	4
摘要	The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises.	Technology roadmapping is a strategic-planning technique that produces a time-based, multi-layered chart linking markets and business drivers, products and services, and the technologies and resources needed to deliver them. By laying these layers along a common timeline and drawing the links between them, a roadmap aligns research and development with strategy, answering where an organisation wants to go, how it will get there, and which technologies must mature and when.