Technology Delphi
The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities.
阅读完整方法
使用免费账户登录即可阅读本节。
方法图谱
相关方法的邻域——选择一个节点以展开探索。
来源
- Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948
- Cuhls, K. (2003). From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany. Journal of Forecasting, 22(2-3), 93-111. DOI: 10.1002/for.848 ↗
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 22). Delphi Method for Technology Foresight (Large-Scale Technology Delphi). ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/science-technology-studies/delphi-foresight
选用哪种方法？
将本方法与其最相近的同类并置，并排研读——本馆将书籍铺陈于案上，取舍则由您定夺。
- Foresight Scenario MethodScience Technology Studies↔ 比较
- Horizon ScanningScience Technology Studies↔ 比较
- Technology ForesightScience Technology Studies↔ 比较
- Technology RoadmappingScience Technology Studies↔ 比较