Process / pipelineSimulation / optimization
确定性情景分析 — 用于规划和决策支持的固定参数情景探索
确定性情景分析 (DSA) 是一种结构化的规划方法，分析师在此方法中构建有限数量的内部一致的未来情景，每个情景由固定的、精确指定的参数值定义，而不是概率分布。通过在每个情景的固定输入下运行模型或计算，决策者可以描绘出结果在各种可能未来中的差异，并对策略进行压力测试，而无需进行完整的概率不确定性表征。
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来源
- Kahn, H., Wiener, A. J. (1967). The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. Macmillan, New York. ISBN: 9780025604407
- Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1993). Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation. Strategic Management Journal, 14(3), 193–213. DOI: 10.1002/smj.4250140304 ↗
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 3). Deterministic Scenario Analysis — Fixed-parameter scenario exploration for planning and decision support. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/simulation/deterministic-scenario-analysis
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