方法对比

	Foresight Scenario Method	Horizon Scanning
领域	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1995	2009
提出者	Paul Schoemaker, drawing on Herman Kahn and the Shell/intuitive-logics tradition	William J. Sutherland, Effie Amanatidou, and the foresight/scanning community
类型	Structured future-construction process	Systematic search-and-detection process
开创性文献	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.	Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009). The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24(10), 523-527.
别名	Scenario planning, Intuitive-logics scenarios, Scenario building	Environmental scanning, Weak-signal detection, Emerging-issues analysis
相关	4	4
摘要	The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises.	Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of information to detect early signs of potentially important developments—weak signals, emerging issues, and wild cards—before they become obvious or fully formed. By surveying a wide range of sources at the edge of current attention, it gives decision-makers advance warning of opportunities and threats and supplies the raw material for foresight, scenario building, and anticipatory policy.