Process / pipeline
情景分析与假设模拟
情景分析是一种结构化的分析方法，它系统地比较不同不确定输入值组合下的系统输出。当与定量模型相结合时，它就变成了模拟——能够对假设进行压力测试并预测合理结果的范围。该方法在 20 世纪 50 年代由 Peter Schwartz 和 Herman Kahn 在战略规划中正式化，广泛应用于政策评估、商业预测、财务风险评估和科学模型探索。
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来源
- Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. (2014). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118173671
- Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View. Currency Doubleday. ISBN: 978-0385267328
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 1). Scenario Analysis and What-If Simulation. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/simulation/scenario-analysis-simulation
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