Process / pipelineSimulation / optimization
政策情景分析——评估不同政策干预在多种可能未来中的表现
政策情景分析（Policy Scenario Analysis, PSA）是一种结构化方法，用于评估不同政策干预在多种可能未来状态下的表现。通过将特定的政策杠杆与替代情景相结合，分析师可以在政策实施前评估其稳健性、权衡和潜在的意外后果——这使其成为从气候到公共卫生等领域循证政策设计的基石。
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来源
- Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.002 ↗
- Bishop, P., Hines, A., Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight, 9(1), 5–25. DOI: 10.1108/14636680710727516 ↗
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 3). Policy Scenario Analysis — Structured evaluation of policy interventions across plausible future states. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/simulation/policy-scenario-analysis
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