方法对比
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| 政策情景分析× | 系统动力学× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1967–1990s | 1961 |
| 提出者≠ | Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD | Jay W. Forrester |
| 类型≠ | Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method | Continuous simulation / feedback modelling |
| 开创性文献≠ | Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146. DOI ↗ | Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159 |
| 别名 | PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis | stock-flow modelling, Sistem Dinamiği (Stock-Flow Modelleme), SD modelling, feedback simulation |
| 相关≠ | 5 | 3 |
| 摘要≠ | Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health. | System dynamics is a continuous simulation method, developed by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1961, that represents a complex system through stocks (accumulations), flows (rates of change), and feedback loops. By expressing these relationships as coupled ordinary differential equations, it reproduces how policies, delays, and nonlinear feedbacks drive system behaviour over time — making it a cornerstone tool in policy analysis, organisational modelling, and sustainability research. |
| ScholarGate数据集 ↗ |
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