Process / pipelineSimulation / optimization
多目标情景分析 — 评估多重竞争目标下的备选未来
多目标情景分析（Multi-objective Scenario Analysis, MOSA）是一种结构化方法，它构建一组合理可信的未来情景，并根据多个相互竞争的目标或标准评估每个情景。通过明确目标之间以及不同未来情景之间的权衡，它支持在未来不确定性和目标冲突并存的情况下做出战略决策。该方法广泛应用于能源规划、气候适应、公共政策和企业战略。
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来源
- Stewart, T. J., French, S., & Rios, J. (2013). Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning: Review and extension. Omega, 41(4), 679-688. DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2012.09.003 ↗
- Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40. link ↗
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 3). Multi-objective Scenario Analysis — Evaluating alternative futures across multiple competing objectives. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/simulation/multi-objective-scenario-analysis
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