方法对比

	Technology Delphi	Technology Roadmapping
领域	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1975	2004
提出者	Helmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany)	Robert Phaal, Clare Farrukh, David Probert (Cambridge T-Plan); Motorola/Corning origins
类型	Iterative structured expert-survey process	Time-based strategic-planning process
开创性文献	Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948	Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. J. P., & Probert, D. R. (2004). Technology roadmapping—a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(1-2), 5-26.
别名	Technology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecast	Technology roadmaps, Strategic roadmapping, T-Plan roadmapping
相关	4	4
摘要	The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities.	Technology roadmapping is a strategic-planning technique that produces a time-based, multi-layered chart linking markets and business drivers, products and services, and the technologies and resources needed to deliver them. By laying these layers along a common timeline and drawing the links between them, a roadmap aligns research and development with strategy, answering where an organisation wants to go, how it will get there, and which technologies must mature and when.