Policy Delphi
The policy Delphi is a structured, iterative technique for eliciting and organising informed opinion on contested policy issues. Unlike the classical Delphi, which seeks consensus on a forecast, the policy Delphi is explicitly designed to generate the strongest possible opposing positions on a policy question and to expose the full range of options, supporting arguments and disagreements among a panel of knowledgeable stakeholders. Introduced by Murray Turoff in 1970, it conducts several anonymous rounds in which participants rate policy statements on dimensions such as desirability and feasibility, see aggregated feedback and the reasoning behind divergent views, and revise their positions — surfacing structured intelligence for decision-makers rather than a forced agreement.
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来源
- Turoff, M. (1970). The design of a policy Delphi. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2(2), 149–171. DOI: 10.1016/0040-1625(70)90161-7 ↗
- Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.) (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 22). Policy Delphi Method for Structured Expert Deliberation. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/public-policy/policy-delphi
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