Process / pipeline
德尔菲法 — 结构化专家共识
德尔菲法是一种结构化的、迭代的调查技术，由诺曼·达尔基（Norman Dalkey）和奥拉夫·赫尔默（Olaf Helmer）于1963年在兰德公司（RAND Corporation）开发，用于在缺乏经验数据或数据不足的复杂主题上，征求和汇聚专家意见。该方法在多轮匿名过程中收集地理上分散的专家小组的独立判断，并在每轮后将汇总结果反馈给参与者，以便他们能够根据群体的集体立场修正自己的观点。
阅读完整方法
仅限会员
登录使用免费账户登录即可阅读本节。
Method map
The neighbourhood of related methods — select a node to explore.
来源
- Dalkey, N. & Helmer, O. (1963). An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458 ↗
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 1). Delphi Method (Structured Expert Consensus). ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/qualitative/delphi-method
Which method?
Set this method beside its closest kin and read them side by side — the library lays the books on the table; the choice is yours.
Compare side by side →