方法对比

	Technology Delphi	Foresight Scenario Method
领域	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1975	1995
提出者	Helmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany)	Paul Schoemaker, drawing on Herman Kahn and the Shell/intuitive-logics tradition
类型	Iterative structured expert-survey process	Structured future-construction process
开创性文献	Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
别名	Technology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecast	Scenario planning, Intuitive-logics scenarios, Scenario building
相关	4	4
摘要	The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities.	The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises.