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德尔菲法×名义小组技术×
领域质性质性
方法族Process / pipelineProcess / pipeline
起源年份19631971
提出者Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer (RAND Corporation)André L. Delbecq and Andrew H. Van de Ven
类型Structured iterative expert-elicitation processQualitative research method
开创性文献Dalkey, N. & Helmer, O. (1963). An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467. DOI ↗Delbecq, A. L., & Van de Ven, A. H. (1971). A group process model for problem identification and program planning. Journal of Applied Behavioral Science, 7(4), 466–492. link ↗
别名Delphi Yöntemi, Delphi technique, expert consensus methodNGT, structured group process, nominal group process, priority-setting group method
相关56
摘要The Delphi method is a structured, iterative survey technique developed by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer at the RAND Corporation in 1963 for eliciting and converging expert opinion on complex topics where empirical data are unavailable or insufficient. It collects independent judgements from a geographically dispersed expert panel over multiple anonymous rounds, feeding aggregated results back to participants after each round so they can revise their views in light of the group's collective position.The Nominal Group Technique (NGT) is a structured group facilitation method designed to generate and prioritise ideas, problems, or solutions while ensuring equal participation from all members. Developed by Delbecq and Van de Ven in 1971, it combines silent individual idea generation with structured group discussion and systematic voting to produce a ranked list of priorities. Unlike unstructured focus groups, NGT prevents dominant voices from suppressing quieter participants, making it especially valuable for needs assessment, program planning, and stakeholder priority-setting in applied research and policy contexts.
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ScholarGate方法对比: Delphi Method · Nominal Group Technique. 于 2026-06-17 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare