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ARCH-LM 검정: 변동성 군집 분석×이분산성 검정 (Breusch-Pagan Test for Heteroskedasticity)×지수적 GARCH (EGARCH)×일반화 자기회귀 조건부 이분산성 (GARCH)×GJR-GARCH (비대칭 GARCH)×
분야계량경제학계량경제학계량경제학계량경제학계량경제학
계열Regression modelRegression modelRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
기원 연도19821979199119861993
창시자Robert F. EngleTrevor Breusch & Adrian PaganNelsonTim BollerslevGlosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (1993); Zakoian (1994)
유형Lagrange multiplier diagnostic test for conditional heteroscedasticityLagrange-multiplier test for heteroskedasticityConditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant)Conditional volatility modelAsymmetric conditional volatility model
원전Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987-1007. DOI ↗Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1979). A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica, 47(5), 1287–1294. DOI ↗Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370. DOI ↗Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327. DOI ↗Glosten, L. R., Jagannathan, R. & Runkle, D. E. (1993). On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks. The Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1779-1801. DOI ↗
별칭ARCH-LM Testi ve Volatilite Kümelenmesi Analizi, ARCH LM test, Engle's ARCH test, test for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticityBP test, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test, Lagrange multiplier test for heteroskedasticity, Breusch-Pagan değişen varyans testiexponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCHGARCH(1,1), generalized ARCH, conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeliasymmetric GARCH, leverage GARCH, TGARCH, GJR-GARCH — Asimetrik GARCH (Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle)
관련63455
요약The ARCH-LM test is Robert Engle's (1982) Lagrange multiplier diagnostic for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in the residuals of a fitted time-series model. It checks whether the error variance changes over time and clusters into calm and turbulent periods, and it is the standard pre-test run before fitting a GARCH-family volatility model.The Breusch-Pagan test, introduced by Trevor Breusch and Adrian Pagan in 1979, is a Lagrange-multiplier test for heteroskedasticity — the condition where the variance of a regression's errors changes with the explanatory variables. It works by regressing the squared OLS residuals on candidate variables and checking whether they explain any of the residual variation, signalling that the constant-variance assumption is violated.EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance.GARCH is an econometric model for the time-varying volatility of financial time series, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986 as a generalisation of Engle's ARCH model. It treats the conditional variance as a function of past squared shocks and past variances, capturing the volatility clustering seen in returns.GJR-GARCH is a variant of the GARCH conditional-volatility model that captures the asymmetric effect of negative shocks on volatility using an indicator variable. It was introduced by Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1993), with a closely related threshold formulation by Zakoian (1994).
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