Process / pipelineReliability & risk
事件树分析 (ETA)
事件树分析 (Event Tree Analysis, ETA) 是一种用于可靠性与风险工程的前向归纳技术，用于模拟初始事件之后可能发生的各种结果。ETA 从单一的不期望事件出发，通过一个二元分支树来追踪所有后续的事件序列，该树代表了安全屏障和防护系统的成功或失效。该方法由 Andrews 和 Moss (2002) 正式引入可靠性与风险文献，并广泛应用于核能、化工和航空航天等行业，以量化事故序列的概率并指导安全决策。
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来源
- Andrews, J. D., & Moss, T. R. (2002). Reliability and Risk Assessment (2nd ed.). Professional Engineering Publishing. ISBN: 978-1-86058-290-5
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 2). Event Tree Analysis (ETA). ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/reliability/event-tree-analysis
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