方法对比

	事件树分析 (ETA)	故障树分析 (FTA)	统计可靠性分析
领域	可靠性	可靠性	可靠性
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline	Regression model
起源年份	2002	1981	1998
提出者	Andrews & Moss	Vesely et al. (US NRC Fault Tree Handbook)	William Meeker & Luis Escobar
类型	Forward inductive logic tree	Deductive top-down failure analysis	Parametric lifetime modeling
开创性文献	Andrews, J. D., & Moss, T. R. (2002). Reliability and Risk Assessment (2nd ed.). Professional Engineering Publishing. ISBN: 978-1-86058-290-5	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.	Meeker, W. Q., & Escobar, L. A. (1998). Statistical Methods for Reliability Data. Wiley. ISBN: 978-0-471-14328-4
别名	ETA, Event Sequence Diagram Analysis, Initiating Event Analysis, Olay Ağacı Analizi	FTA, Fault Tree Method, Top-Down Reliability Analysis, Hata Ağacı Analizi	Life Data Analysis, Survival Analysis (Engineering), Time-to-Failure Analysis, Güvenilirlik Analizi
相关	2	3	3
摘要	Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a forward inductive technique used in reliability and risk engineering to model the possible outcomes that follow an initiating event. Starting from a single undesired event, ETA traces all subsequent event sequences through a binary branching tree representing the success or failure of safety barriers and protective systems. Introduced formally in reliability and risk literature by Andrews and Moss (2002), it is widely applied in nuclear, chemical, and aerospace industries to quantify accident sequence probabilities and guide safety decision-making.	Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a top-down, deductive reliability method that begins with an undesired top-level failure event and systematically traces backward through chains of contributing causes using Boolean logic gates (AND, OR). First formalized by Watson at Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1961 and later standardized by Vesely, Goldberg, Roberts, and Haasl in the landmark 1981 NRC Fault Tree Handbook, FTA has become a cornerstone of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear, aerospace, and industrial safety engineering.	Statistical reliability analysis models the time-to-failure of components, systems, or products using parametric lifetime distributions fitted to observed or censored failure data. Formalized comprehensively by William Q. Meeker and Luis A. Escobar in their 1998 Wiley monograph, the framework integrates maximum likelihood estimation, censoring mechanisms, and distributional diagnostics to produce probability-of-failure curves, hazard rates, and quantile estimates that support design, warranty, and maintenance decisions.