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| Robusni GARCH model× | EGARCH model (eksponencijalni GARCH)× | GARCH model (predviđanje volatilnosti)× | Kvantilna regresija× | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oblast | Ekonometrija | Ekonometrija | Ekonometrija | Ekonometrija |
| Porodica | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Godina nastanka≠ | 1986–2013 | 1991 | 1986 | 1978 |
| Tvorac≠ | Boudt, Danielsson & Laurent (robust extensions); Bollerslev (standard GARCH, 1986) | Daniel B. Nelson | Tim Bollerslev | Koenker & Bassett |
| Tip≠ | Volatility model | Volatility / conditional variance model | Conditional volatility model | Conditional quantile regression |
| Temeljni izvor≠ | Boudt, K., Danielsson, J., & Laurent, S. (2013). Robust forecasting of dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models. International Journal of Forecasting, 29(2), 244–257. DOI ↗ | Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370. DOI ↗ | Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗ | Koenker, R. & Bassett, G., Jr. (1978). Regression Quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50. DOI ↗ |
| Drugi nazivi≠ | Robust GARCH, outlier-robust GARCH, heavy-tail GARCH, contamination-robust volatility model | Exponential GARCH, EGARCH, Nelson EGARCH, log-GARCH | GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini) | conditional quantile regression, regression quantiles, Kantil Regresyon |
| Srodne≠ | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Sažetak≠ | The Robust GARCH model extends the classical GARCH framework to handle outliers and heavy-tailed innovations that commonly appear in financial return series. By down-weighting extreme observations through a robust innovation term, it produces more reliable volatility forecasts when data contain jumps, crises, or other anomalies that would otherwise distort standard GARCH estimates. | The Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, introduced by Nelson (1991), extends the standard GARCH framework by modelling the logarithm of conditional variance. This ensures variance is always positive without parameter constraints and, crucially, allows negative and positive shocks to have asymmetric effects on volatility — capturing the well-known leverage effect in financial markets. | The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series. | Quantile regression models conditional quantiles of an outcome - the median, the 25th or 75th percentile, and so on - rather than the conditional mean that OLS targets. Introduced by Koenker and Bassett in 1978, it reveals how predictors act across the whole distribution, including its tails. |
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