방법 비교

	TGARCH 모형 (Threshold GARCH)	ARCH 모형 (자기회귀 조건부 이분산성)	ARIMA 모형 (자기회귀 누적 이동평균)
분야	계량경제학	계량경제학	계량경제학
계열	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
기원 연도	1993-1994	1982	1970
창시자	Zakoian (1994); Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (1993)	Robert F. Engle	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins
유형	Asymmetric volatility model	Conditional volatility model	Time series forecasting model
원전	Zakoian, J.-M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(5), 931-955.	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
별칭	Threshold GARCH, TGARCH, GJR-GARCH, asymmetric GARCH	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)
관련	6	6	6
요약	The Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model extends the standard GARCH framework by allowing positive and negative return shocks to have asymmetric effects on conditional variance. Negative shocks — bad news — typically amplify volatility more than positive shocks of the same magnitude, a stylised fact known as the leverage effect. TGARCH captures this asymmetry through a threshold indicator that switches on when the previous period's shock was negative.	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.