Módszerek összehasonlítása

	Mozgóátlag (MA) modell	ARIMA modell (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)	ARMA-modell (Autoregresszív Mozgóátlag)	Autoregresszív modell (AR)
Tudományterület	Ökonometria	Ökonometria	Ökonometria	Ökonometria
Módszercsalád	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Keletkezés éve	1970	1970	1970	1970s (popularised 1976)
Megalkotó	Box and Jenkins	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
Típus	Linear time series model	Time series forecasting model	Time series model	Time series model
Alapmű	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043
Alternatív nevek	MA model, MA(q) process, moving-average process, Box-Jenkins MA	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process
Kapcsolódó	5	6	5	6
Összefoglaló	The Moving Average model of order q — written MA(q) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear combination of the current and past random shocks (innovations). Unlike the AR model which uses lagged values of the series itself, the MA model uses lagged error terms, making it well-suited for capturing short-lived disturbances that dissipate over q periods.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.