General Morphological Analysis
General morphological analysis (GMA) is a method for structuring and exploring the total set of possible configurations of a complex, multi-dimensional problem that cannot be reduced to numbers. Devised by the astrophysicist Fritz Zwicky in the mid-twentieth century and formalized for policy and futures work by Tom Ritchey, it begins by laying out a problem as a 'morphological field' — a set of parameters, each with several discrete value-states — whose combinations define every conceivable solution. Because that combinatorial space is usually enormous, the method's decisive step is cross-consistency assessment: experts judge every pair of states for internal contradiction, and contradictory pairs prune the field down to a far smaller set of internally coherent configurations that can actually be examined.
阅读完整方法
使用免费账户登录即可阅读本节。
方法图谱
相关方法的邻域——选择一个节点以展开探索。
来源
- Ritchey, T. (2011). Wicked Problems - Social Messes: Decision Support Modelling with Morphological Analysis. Springer. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-19653-9 ↗
- Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight, 9(1), 5-25. DOI: 10.1108/14636680710727516 ↗
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 23). General Morphological Analysis (Morphological Field with Cross-Consistency Assessment). ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/futures-foresight-studies/general-morphological-analysis
选用哪种方法?
将本方法与其最相近的同类并置,并排研读——本馆将书籍铺陈于案上,取舍则由您定夺。
- Field Anomaly RelaxationFutures Foresight Studies↔ 比较
- Intuitive Logics Scenario PlanningFutures Foresight Studies↔ 比较
- La Prospective Morphological ScenariosFutures Foresight Studies↔ 比较