方法对比

	非线性TGARCH模型	EGARCH model	GARCH 模型（波动率预测）
领域	计量经济学	计量经济学	计量经济学
方法族	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1993–1994	1991	1986
提出者	Jean-Michel Zakoian; related work by Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle	Daniel B. Nelson	Tim Bollerslev
类型	Conditional heteroskedasticity model	Volatility / conditional variance model	Conditional volatility model
开创性文献	Zakoian, J.-M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(5), 931–955.	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.
别名	NL-TGARCH, Nonlinear Threshold GARCH, Asymmetric TGARCH, GJR-GARCH variant	Exponential GARCH, EGARCH, Nelson EGARCH, log-GARCH	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
相关	4	6	5
摘要	The Nonlinear TGARCH (Threshold GARCH) model extends the standard GARCH framework by allowing positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude to exert different effects on future volatility. It models conditional volatility in terms of the absolute value of lagged residuals split by a sign threshold, capturing the well-documented leverage effect in financial return series.	The Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, introduced by Nelson (1991), extends the standard GARCH framework by modelling the logarithm of conditional variance. This ensures variance is always positive without parameter constraints and, crucially, allows negative and positive shocks to have asymmetric effects on volatility — capturing the well-known leverage effect in financial markets.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.