方法对比

	非线性恩格尔-格兰杰协整	ARDL 边界检验（Pesaran 边界检验）	非线性自回归分布式滞后 (NARDL) 模型
领域	计量经济学	计量经济学	计量经济学
方法族	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1998-2006	2001	2014
提出者	Kapetanios, Shin & Snell; Enders & Granger	Pesaran, Shin & Smith	Shin, Yu & Greenwood-Nimmo
类型	Cointegration test	Cointegration test / Autoregressive distributed lag model	Nonlinear cointegration model
开创性文献	Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., & Snell, A. (2006). Testing for cointegration in nonlinear smooth transition error correction models. Econometric Theory, 22(2), 279-303.	Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.	Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In R. C. Sickles & W. C. Horrace (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (pp. 281–314). Springer.
别名	nonlinear cointegration, threshold cointegration, KSS cointegration, ESTAR cointegration	Pesaran bounds test, bounds testing approach, ARDL cointegration test, ARDL Sınır Testi (Pesaran Bounds Test)	NARDL, nonlinear bounds test, asymmetric ARDL, asymmetric cointegration model
相关	3	4	5
摘要	Nonlinear Engle-Granger cointegration extends the classical two-step Engle-Granger procedure to detect long-run equilibria where adjustment toward the equilibrium is nonlinear — for example, faster above than below a threshold, or governed by a smooth transition mechanism. It is widely applied in financial economics, purchasing power parity tests, and commodity price analysis.	The ARDL bounds test is an autoregressive distributed lag method that tests for a cointegrating (long-run level) relationship between time series, introduced by Pesaran, Shin and Smith in 2001. Unlike the Johansen procedure, it remains valid whether the variables are I(0), I(1) or a mix of the two, and it is more reliable than Johansen in small samples of roughly 30 to 80 observations.	The Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model extends the linear ARDL bounds-testing framework to allow asymmetric long-run and short-run relationships. By decomposing the regressor into cumulative positive and negative partial sums, it tests whether increases and decreases in a variable exert different effects on the outcome — a feature especially relevant in financial and energy economics where positive and negative shocks rarely cancel out symmetrically.