方法对比

	纵向项目评估	中断时间序列（ITS）分析	项目评估
领域	田野方法	因果推断	田野方法
方法族	Process / pipeline	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1960s–1970s (program evaluation); longitudinal designs formalized 1970s–1980s	2002	1960s–1970s (Scriven 1967; Stufflebeam CIPP model 1971)
提出者	Peter Rossi, Michael Scriven, Donald Campbell (program evaluation tradition)	Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)	Michael Scriven; Daniel Stufflebeam; Peter Rossi
类型	Applied evaluation research design	Quasi-experimental segmented regression	Applied evaluation methodology
开创性文献	Rossi, P. H., Lipsey, M. W., & Freeman, H. E. (2004). Evaluation: A Systematic Approach (7th ed.). Sage Publications. ISBN: 978-0761908944	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.	Rossi, P. H., Lipsey, M. W., & Freeman, H. E. (2004). Evaluation: A Systematic Approach (7th ed.). Sage. ISBN: 978-0761908944
别名	LPE, longitudinal evaluation, long-term program evaluation, prospective program evaluation	ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi	evaluation research, program assessment, educational evaluation, systematic program evaluation
相关	3	5	3
摘要	Longitudinal program evaluation is an applied research design that tracks the outcomes and processes of a program or intervention across multiple time points — from pre-implementation baseline through medium- and long-term follow-up. Unlike single-point evaluations, it captures how program effects emerge, fade, or evolve over time, enabling evaluators and funders to judge sustained impact, cost-effectiveness, and unintended consequences that would be invisible in a snapshot assessment.	Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.	Program evaluation is a systematic, empirically grounded process of collecting and analyzing information about a program to determine its merit, worth, or significance. Applied across education, public health, social services, and policy, it addresses questions such as whether a program is reaching its target population, whether it is being implemented as designed, and whether it is producing the intended outcomes. It draws on both quantitative and qualitative methods and serves accountability, improvement, or knowledge-generation purposes.