方法对比

	中断时间序列（ITS）分析	项目评估
领域	因果推断	田野方法
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2002	1960s–1970s (Scriven 1967; Stufflebeam CIPP model 1971)
提出者	Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)	Michael Scriven; Daniel Stufflebeam; Peter Rossi
类型	Quasi-experimental segmented regression	Applied evaluation methodology
开创性文献	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.	Rossi, P. H., Lipsey, M. W., & Freeman, H. E. (2004). Evaluation: A Systematic Approach (7th ed.). Sage. ISBN: 978-0761908944
别名	ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi	evaluation research, program assessment, educational evaluation, systematic program evaluation
相关	5	3
摘要	Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.	Program evaluation is a systematic, empirically grounded process of collecting and analyzing information about a program to determine its merit, worth, or significance. Applied across education, public health, social services, and policy, it addresses questions such as whether a program is reaching its target population, whether it is being implemented as designed, and whether it is producing the intended outcomes. It draws on both quantitative and qualitative methods and serves accountability, improvement, or knowledge-generation purposes.