方法对比

	离散选择模拟	联合分析	蒙特卡洛模拟
领域	仿真	实验设计	决策
方法族	Process / pipeline	Hypothesis test	MCDM
起源年份	1974 (McFadden's Nobel-cited logit); simulation extensions throughout 1990s–2000s	1978	1949
提出者	Daniel McFadden (random utility theory); Kenneth Train (simulation methods)	Paul E. Green & V. Srinivasan	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S.
类型	Discrete choice modelling with Monte Carlo simulation	Decomposition-based utility estimation	Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
开创性文献	Train, K.E. (2009). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press.	Green, P.E. & Srinivasan, V. (1978). Conjoint analysis in consumer research: Issues and outlook. Journal of Consumer Research, 5(2), 103–123.	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association
别名	stated preference simulation, SP simulation, revealed preference modelling, Ayrık Seçim Simülasyonu (Stated Preference / SP Simulation)	CBC conjoint, choice-based conjoint, adaptive conjoint analysis, full-profile conjoint	—
相关	5	6	0
摘要	Discrete choice simulation is a behavioural modelling method — grounded in random utility theory formalised by Daniel McFadden in the 1970s and extended to simulation-based estimation by Kenneth Train — that estimates how individuals choose among mutually exclusive alternatives and then uses those estimated preference parameters to forecast how choice shares would shift under hypothetical policy or market scenarios. It is the dominant quantitative tool in transport demand analysis, health economics, environmental valuation, and marketing research.	Conjoint analysis is a preference-measurement technique that decomposes overall product evaluations into the separate utility values — called part-worths — that respondents assign to each attribute level. Formalised by Green and Srinivasan in their seminal 1978 Journal of Consumer Research paper, the method has become the dominant tool in marketing research and product design for quantifying what buyers truly trade off when they choose between options.	MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result.