方法对比

	离散选择模拟	联合分析	个体模拟	混合Logit模型
领域	仿真	实验设计	仿真	计量经济学
方法族	Process / pipeline	Hypothesis test	Process / pipeline	Regression model
起源年份	1974 (McFadden's Nobel-cited logit); simulation extensions throughout 1990s–2000s	1978	1957	2000
提出者	Daniel McFadden (random utility theory); Kenneth Train (simulation methods)	Paul E. Green & V. Srinivasan	Guy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projects	Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train
类型	Discrete choice modelling with Monte Carlo simulation	Decomposition-based utility estimation	Policy simulation / computational social science	Random-parameters discrete choice model
开创性文献	Train, K.E. (2009). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press.	Green, P.E. & Srinivasan, V. (1978). Conjoint analysis in consumer research: Issues and outlook. Journal of Consumer Research, 5(2), 103–123.	O'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald.	Train, K. E. (2009). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-0-521-74738-7
别名	stated preference simulation, SP simulation, revealed preference modelling, Ayrık Seçim Simülasyonu (Stated Preference / SP Simulation)	CBC conjoint, choice-based conjoint, adaptive conjoint analysis, full-profile conjoint	Mikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulation	Random Parameters Logit, Mixed Multinomial Logit, Error Components Logit, Karma Logit Modeli
相关	5	6	5	3
摘要	Discrete choice simulation is a behavioural modelling method — grounded in random utility theory formalised by Daniel McFadden in the 1970s and extended to simulation-based estimation by Kenneth Train — that estimates how individuals choose among mutually exclusive alternatives and then uses those estimated preference parameters to forecast how choice shares would shift under hypothetical policy or market scenarios. It is the dominant quantitative tool in transport demand analysis, health economics, environmental valuation, and marketing research.	Conjoint analysis is a preference-measurement technique that decomposes overall product evaluations into the separate utility values — called part-worths — that respondents assign to each attribute level. Formalised by Green and Srinivasan in their seminal 1978 Journal of Consumer Research paper, the method has become the dominant tool in marketing research and product design for quantifying what buyers truly trade off when they choose between options.	Microsimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation.	The Mixed Logit model, introduced formally by McFadden and Train (2000) and elaborated in Train (2009), is a flexible discrete choice framework that allows preference parameters to vary randomly across decision-makers. By integrating standard logit probabilities over a mixing distribution of coefficients, it overcomes the restrictive independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property and accommodates unobserved taste heterogeneity, panel data correlation, and complex substitution patterns across alternatives.