Regression modelEconometrics / time series
Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model (TVP-VAR)
The Time-Varying Parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model extends the standard vector autoregression by allowing the coefficients and error covariances to evolve gradually over time. Estimated via Bayesian methods and MCMC simulation, it captures how dynamic relationships between macroeconomic or financial variables shift across different economic regimes without requiring pre-specified break points.
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Sources
- Primiceri, G. E. (2005). Time varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy. Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 821-852. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00353.x ↗
- Cogley, T., & Nason, J. M. (1995). Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: Implications for business cycle research. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19(1-2), 253-278. DOI: 10.1016/0165-1889(93)00781-X ↗