Uporedite metode

	Modelovanje duge memorije (ARFIMA, FIGARCH)	Model ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)	GARCH model (predviđanje volatilnosti)	Regresija običnih najmanjih kvadrata (OLS)
Oblast	Finansije	Ekonometrija	Ekonometrija	Ekonometrija
Porodica	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Godina nastanka	1980	2015	1986	2019
Tvorac	Granger & Joyeux (ARFIMA); Baillie, Bollerslev & Mikkelsen (FIGARCH)	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Tim Bollerslev	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares
Tip	Fractionally integrated time series model	Univariate time-series model	Conditional volatility model	Linear regression
Temeljni izvor	Granger, C. W. J. & Joyeux, R. (1980). An Introduction to Long-Memory Time Series Models and Fractional Differencing. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1(1), 15-29.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860
Drugi nazivi	ARFIMA, FIGARCH, fractionally integrated models, fractional integration	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu
Srodne	4	5	5	5
Sažetak	Long-memory models are fractional-integration methods that capture genuine long memory through a hyperbolically decaying autocorrelation structure. ARFIMA, introduced by Granger and Joyeux (1980), models long memory in return series, while FIGARCH, introduced by Baillie, Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996), captures long memory in volatility series; the parameter d measures the degree of fractional integration.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).