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Model ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)×Model DCC-GARCH (dynamická podmienená korelácia)×Model GARCH (predikcia volatility)×
OdborEkonometriaEkonometriaEkonometria
RodinaRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
Rok vzniku197020021986
TvorcaGeorge Box and Gwilym JenkinsRobert F. EngleTim Bollerslev
TypTime series forecasting modelMultivariate volatility modelConditional volatility model
Pôvodný zdrojBox, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day. link ↗Engle, R. F. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(3), 339-350. DOI ↗Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗
Ďalšie názvyARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)DCC-GARCH, Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH, Engle DCC model, multivariate DCCGARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
Príbuzné655
ZhrnutieThe ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.The DCC-GARCH model, introduced by Engle (2002), extends univariate GARCH to capture time-varying correlations between multiple financial time series. It decomposes the multivariate conditional covariance matrix into individual volatility processes and a dynamic correlation matrix, allowing correlations to fluctuate over time while remaining computationally tractable even with many series.The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.
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ScholarGatePorovnať metódy: ARIMA model · DCC-GARCH model · GARCH Model. Získané 2026-06-19 z https://scholargate.app/sk/compare