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Modelul ARIMA cu Rupturi Structurale×Testul Bai-Perron pentru rupturi structurale multiple×Testul Chow pentru ruptură structurală×
DomeniuEconometrieEconometrieEconometrie
FamilieRegression modelHypothesis testRegression model
Anul apariției1989-199819981960
Autorul originalPerron (1989); extended by Bai & Perron (1998)Jushan Bai & Pierre PerronGregory C. Chow
TipTime series model with regime detectionSequential hypothesis test for multiple structural breaksTest for structural break in regression coefficients
Sursa seminalăBai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47-78. DOI ↗Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78. DOI ↗Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591–605. DOI ↗
Denumiri alternativeARIMA with structural breaks, break-adjusted ARIMA, piecewise ARIMA, ARIMA with regime shiftsBai-Perron Multiple Break Test, Multiple Structural Change Test, Sequential Structural Break Test, Çoklu Yapısal Kırılma TestiChow breakpoint test, structural break test, Chow yapısal kırılma testi
Înrudite322
RezumatA structural break ARIMA model extends the standard ARIMA framework by explicitly identifying and accommodating one or more abrupt shifts in the level, trend, or dynamics of a time series. Rather than forcing a single set of ARIMA parameters across the entire sample, it fits separate ARIMA specifications for each regime defined by the detected break dates.The Bai-Perron test, introduced by Jushan Bai and Pierre Perron in their landmark 1998 Econometrica paper, is a least-squares-based procedure for detecting, estimating, and testing the number of structural breaks in a linear regression model estimated on time-series data. Unlike single-break tests, it simultaneously identifies multiple change-points in a sample, providing economists and empirical researchers with a rigorous, data-driven way to locate parameter instability across time.The Chow test, introduced by Gregory Chow in 1960, checks whether the coefficients of a linear regression are the same across two subsamples — that is, whether a structural break occurs at a known point such as a policy change, crisis, or regime shift. It compares the fit of a single pooled regression with the combined fit of two separate regressions; a large improvement from splitting indicates the relationship differs between the two periods or groups.
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ScholarGateCompară metode: Structural Break ARIMA Model · Bai-Perron Test · Chow Test. Preluat la 2026-06-18 de pe https://scholargate.app/ro/compare