Comparar métodos

	Método de Croston para Demanda Intermitente	Modelo ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)	Regressão por Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO)	Regressão de Poisson e Binomial Negativa
Área	Econometria	Econometria	Econometria	Econometria
Família	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Ano de origem	1972	2015	2019	1998
Autor original	J. D. Croston (1972)	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares	Cameron & Trivedi (textbook treatment); Hilbe (negative binomial)
Tipo	Intermittent demand time-series forecasting	Univariate time-series model	Linear regression	Generalized linear model for count data
Fonte seminal	Croston, J. D. (1972). Forecasting and Stock Control for Intermittent Demands. Operational Research Quarterly, 23(3), 289-303.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860	Cameron, A. C. & Trivedi, P. K. (1998). Regression Analysis of Count Data. Cambridge University Press.
Outros nomes	Croston method, intermittent demand forecasting, Croston Yöntemi — Aralıklı Talep Tahmini	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu	count regression, log-linear count model, negative binomial regression, Poisson / Negatif Binom Regresyon
Relacionados	4	5	5	4
Resumo	Croston's method, introduced by J. D. Croston in 1972, is a time-series forecasting technique built for intermittent demand series in which periods of zero demand are frequent. Instead of forecasting the raw series, it models the size of demand when it occurs and the interval between demand occurrences as two separate processes.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).	Poisson regression is a generalized linear model for count outcomes — events tallied as non-negative integers such as hospital admissions, accidents, or article counts. It models the log of the expected count as a linear function of the predictors, and is developed in the standard count-data treatment of Cameron and Trivedi (1998); when the counts are over-dispersed, the closely related negative binomial model (Hilbe, 2011) is preferred.