Methoden vergelijken

	ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Model	Eenvoudige en dubbele exponentiële afvlakking (SES / Holt)	Gewone Kleinste Kwadraten (GKK) Regressie	Seizoensgebonden ARIMA (SARIMA)
Vakgebied	Econometrie	Econometrie	Econometrie	Econometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Jaar van ontstaan	2015	1957	2019	2015
Grondlegger	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Robert G. Brown (SES); Charles C. Holt (linear trend)	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares	Box & Jenkins (seasonal extension of ARIMA)
Type	Univariate time-series model	Exponential smoothing forecasting model	Linear regression	Seasonal time-series model
Oorspronkelijke bron	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Brown, R. G. (1959). Statistical Forecasting for Inventory Control. McGraw-Hill.	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860	Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C. & Ljung, G.M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021
Aliassen	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	SES, Holt's linear trend method, exponential smoothing forecasting, Basit ve Çift Üstel Düzleştirme (SES / Holt)	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu	seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, SARIMA — Mevsimsel ARIMA
Verwant	5	3	5	5
Samenvatting	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	Exponential smoothing is a family of basic time-series forecasting models in which each new observation updates a smoothed estimate by a weighting parameter. Simple exponential smoothing (SES), introduced by Robert G. Brown in 1959, forecasts series with a stable level, while Holt's double exponential smoothing, introduced by Charles C. Holt in 1957, adds a trend term using the parameters alpha and beta.	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).	SARIMA is a seasonal extension of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model that adds seasonal differencing and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average terms. Developed within the Box, Jenkins, Reinsel and Ljung framework (5th edition, 2015), it forecasts series whose pattern repeats on a yearly, monthly, or weekly period.