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| Model EGARCH (Exponential GARCH)× | Model ARCH (Heteroskedastisitas Bersyarat Autoregresif)× | Model DCC-GARCH (Dynamic Conditional Correlation)× | Model GARCH (Peramalan Volatiliti)× | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bidang | Ekonometrik | Ekonometrik | Ekonometrik | Ekonometrik |
| Keluarga | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Tahun asal≠ | 1991 | 1982 | 2002 | 1986 |
| Pengasas≠ | Daniel B. Nelson | Robert F. Engle | Robert F. Engle | Tim Bollerslev |
| Jenis≠ | Volatility / conditional variance model | Conditional volatility model | Multivariate volatility model | Conditional volatility model |
| Sumber perintis≠ | Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370. DOI ↗ | Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. DOI ↗ | Engle, R. F. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(3), 339-350. DOI ↗ | Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗ |
| Alias | Exponential GARCH, EGARCH, Nelson EGARCH, log-GARCH | ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model | DCC-GARCH, Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH, Engle DCC model, multivariate DCC | GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini) |
| Berkaitan≠ | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Ringkasan≠ | The Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, introduced by Nelson (1991), extends the standard GARCH framework by modelling the logarithm of conditional variance. This ensures variance is always positive without parameter constraints and, crucially, allows negative and positive shocks to have asymmetric effects on volatility — capturing the well-known leverage effect in financial markets. | The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering. | The DCC-GARCH model, introduced by Engle (2002), extends univariate GARCH to capture time-varying correlations between multiple financial time series. It decomposes the multivariate conditional covariance matrix into individual volatility processes and a dynamic correlation matrix, allowing correlations to fluctuate over time while remaining computationally tractable even with many series. | The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series. |
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