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구조적 분해 TGARCH (구조적 분해를 포함한 임계값 GARCH)×GARCH 모형 (변동성 예측)×
분야계량경제학계량경제학
계열Regression modelRegression model
기원 연도1990-19931986
창시자Lamoureux & Lastrapes (structural breaks in GARCH); Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (TGARCH/GJR-GARCH asymmetry)Tim Bollerslev
유형Volatility modelConditional volatility model
원전Lamoureux, C. G., & Lastrapes, W. D. (1990). Persistence in variance, structural change, and the GARCH model. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8(2), 225-234. DOI ↗Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗
별칭SB-TGARCH, threshold GARCH with structural breaks, GJR-GARCH with structural breaks, break-adjusted TGARCHGARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
관련35
요약Structural Break TGARCH extends the Threshold GARCH (GJR-GARCH) model to accommodate discrete, permanent shifts in the volatility process. By detecting structural breaks and incorporating them — either as regime-specific intercepts or dummy variables — the model separates genuine volatility persistence from spurious persistence induced by ignored regime changes, and preserves the asymmetric leverage effect that characterises equity and financial return data.The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.
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