방법 비교

	로버스트 ARCH 모형	GARCH 모형 (변동성 예측)
분야	계량경제학	계량경제학
계열	Regression model	Regression model
기원 연도	2002–2008	1986
창시자	Engle (1982) for ARCH; robust variants developed by Muler, Yohai, and others from the early 2000s	Tim Bollerslev
유형	Volatility / conditional heteroscedasticity model	Conditional volatility model
원전	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.
별칭	robust ARCH, outlier-robust ARCH, heavy-tailed ARCH, robust conditional volatility model	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
관련	6	5
요약	The Robust ARCH model extends the classical Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework by replacing the standard maximum-likelihood estimator with robust alternatives that downweight or eliminate the influence of outliers. This makes volatility estimates resistant to extreme observations that frequently contaminate financial and macroeconomic time series.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.