방법 비교

	강건 자기회귀 모형	ARIMA 모형 (자기회귀 누적 이동평균)	ARMA 모형 (자기회귀 이동평균)
분야	계량경제학	계량경제학	계량경제학
계열	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
기원 연도	1986	1970	1970
창시자	Martin & Yohai (influential early work); broader robust time series literature	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
유형	Robust time series model	Time series forecasting model	Time series model
원전	Martin, R. D., & Yohai, V. J. (1986). Influence functionals for time series. Annals of Statistics, 14(3), 781–818.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
별칭	robust autoregression, outlier-robust AR, M-estimator AR, heavy-tail AR	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)
관련	6	6	5
요약	The robust AR model fits an autoregressive time series specification using estimation methods — typically M-estimators or bounded-influence estimators — that resist distortion from outliers and heavy-tailed error distributions. Unlike OLS-based AR estimation, robust variants down-weight extreme observations so that a small number of contaminated data points cannot dominate the fitted dynamics.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.