방법 비교

	실현 변동성과 HAR 모형	ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) 모형	지수적 GARCH (EGARCH)
분야	재무학	계량경제학	계량경제학
계열	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
기원 연도	2009	2015	1991
창시자	Corsi (HAR model); Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold & Labys (realized volatility)	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Nelson
유형	Time-series regression of realized variance	Univariate time-series model	Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant)
원전	Corsi, F. (2009). A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 7(2), 174-196.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370.
별칭	realized variance, HAR model, heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility, HAR-RV	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH
관련	5	5	4
요약	Realized volatility estimates an asset's variance directly from high-frequency intraday returns rather than from a parametric latent process. The Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model of Corsi (2009), building on the realized-volatility framework of Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), forecasts this measure by combining daily, weekly, and monthly volatility components, and is a strong alternative to GARCH for volatility prediction.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance.