방법 비교

	마르코프 정권 전환 모형 (MS-AR / MS-VAR)	일반화 자기회귀 조건부 이분산성 (GARCH)	최소제곱법(OLS) 회귀
분야	계량경제학	계량경제학	계량경제학
계열	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
기원 연도	1989	1986	2019
창시자	Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999)	Tim Bollerslev	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares
유형	Regime-switching time series model	Conditional volatility model	Linear regression
원전	Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327.	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860
별칭	regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR	GARCH(1,1), generalized ARCH, conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu
관련	5	5	5
요약	The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.	GARCH is an econometric model for the time-varying volatility of financial time series, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986 as a generalisation of Engle's ARCH model. It treats the conditional variance as a function of past squared shocks and past variances, capturing the volatility clustering seen in returns.	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).