방법 비교

	GARCH 모형 (변동성 예측)	TGARCH 모형 (Threshold GARCH)
분야	계량경제학	계량경제학
계열	Regression model	Regression model
기원 연도	1986	1993-1994
창시자	Tim Bollerslev	Zakoian (1994); Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (1993)
유형	Conditional volatility model	Asymmetric volatility model
원전	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.	Zakoian, J.-M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(5), 931-955.
별칭	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)	Threshold GARCH, TGARCH, GJR-GARCH, asymmetric GARCH
관련	5	6
요약	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.	The Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model extends the standard GARCH framework by allowing positive and negative return shocks to have asymmetric effects on conditional variance. Negative shocks — bad news — typically amplify volatility more than positive shocks of the same magnitude, a stylised fact known as the leverage effect. TGARCH captures this asymmetry through a threshold indicator that switches on when the previous period's shock was negative.