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| GARCH 모형 (변동성 예측)× | SARIMA 모형× | |
|---|---|---|
| 분야 | 계량경제학 | 계량경제학 |
| 계열 | Regression model | Regression model |
| 기원 연도≠ | 1986 | 1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised) |
| 창시자≠ | Tim Bollerslev | Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel |
| 유형≠ | Conditional volatility model | Seasonal time series model |
| 원전≠ | Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744 |
| 별칭 | GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini) | SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal component |
| 관련 | 5 | 5 |
| 요약≠ | The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series. | SARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics. |
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