방법 비교

	일반화 자기회귀 조건부 이분산성 (GARCH)	복잡한 계절성을 위한 삼각 지수 평활법(TBATS)
분야	계량경제학	계량경제학
계열	Regression model	Regression model
기원 연도	1986	2011
창시자	Tim Bollerslev	De Livera, Hyndman & Snyder
유형	Conditional volatility model	Exponential smoothing state space model
원전	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327.	De Livera, A. M., Hyndman, R. J. & Snyder, R. D. (2011). Forecasting Time Series with Complex Seasonal Patterns Using Exponential Smoothing. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106(496), 1513-1527.
별칭	GARCH(1,1), generalized ARCH, conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli	trigonometric exponential smoothing, multiple seasonal exponential smoothing, complex seasonal exponential smoothing, TBATS — Çoklu Mevsimsel Üstel Düzleştirme
관련	5	3
요약	GARCH is an econometric model for the time-varying volatility of financial time series, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986 as a generalisation of Engle's ARCH model. It treats the conditional variance as a function of past squared shocks and past variances, capturing the volatility clustering seen in returns.	TBATS is an innovations state space forecasting model, introduced by De Livera, Hyndman and Snyder (2011), that combines a Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors and trigonometric (Fourier) seasonal terms. It is built to handle continuous time series with several nested seasonal cycles at once — for example hourly data that also repeats daily, weekly and yearly.