방법 비교

	델파이 기법	Multi-Criteria Policy Analysis	정책 시나리오 분석
분야	질적 방법	Public Policy	시뮬레이션
계열	Process / pipeline	MCDM	Process / pipeline
기원 연도	1963	2002	1967–1990s
창시자	Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer (RAND Corporation)	Valerie Belton & Theodor Stewart (synthesis); MCDA tradition	Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD
유형	Structured iterative expert-elicitation process	Multi-criteria decision analysis applied to policy appraisal	Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method
원전	Dalkey, N. & Helmer, O. (1963). An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467.	Belton, V., & Stewart, T. J. (2002). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. ISBN: 9780792375050	Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146.
별칭	Delphi Yöntemi, Delphi technique, expert consensus method	Multi-Criteria Analysis for Policy, MCDA Policy Appraisal, MCA in Policy, Multi-Criteria Policy Appraisal	PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis
관련	5	3	5
요약	The Delphi method is a structured, iterative survey technique developed by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer at the RAND Corporation in 1963 for eliciting and converging expert opinion on complex topics where empirical data are unavailable or insufficient. It collects independent judgements from a geographically dispersed expert panel over multiple anonymous rounds, feeding aggregated results back to participants after each round so they can revise their views in light of the group's collective position.	Multi-criteria policy analysis applies multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to appraise and rank policy options against several, often conflicting, objectives that cannot be reduced to a single money metric. Each option is scored on a set of explicit criteria — economic, social, environmental, distributional — the criteria are weighted to reflect their relative importance, and the scores are aggregated into an overall value that ranks the options. Set out comprehensively in Belton and Stewart's 2002 textbook and operationalised for government in the UK's widely used Multi-Criteria Analysis Manual, the approach makes the trade-offs in a policy decision transparent and structured rather than implicit.	Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health.