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| 베이즈 VAR 모형 (BVAR)× | Vector Autoregression (VAR)× | |
|---|---|---|
| 분야 | 계량경제학 | 계량경제학 |
| 계열 | Regression model | Regression model |
| 기원 연도≠ | 1984 | 1980 |
| 창시자≠ | Doan, Litterman & Sims | Christopher A. Sims |
| 유형 | Multivariate time-series model | Multivariate time-series model |
| 원전≠ | Doan, T., Litterman, R., & Sims, C. (1984). Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions. Econometric Reviews, 3(1), 1–100. DOI ↗ | Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48. DOI ↗ |
| 별칭 | BVAR, Bayesian VAR, Bayesian vector autoregressive model, BVAR model | VAR, VAR model, vector autoregressive model, multivariate autoregression |
| 관련 | 5 | 5 |
| 요약≠ | The Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model extends the classical VAR framework by incorporating prior beliefs about the model coefficients. Priors — most commonly the Minnesota prior — shrink VAR coefficients toward economically sensible values, dramatically reducing overfitting and improving out-of-sample forecast accuracy even when the number of variables is large. | Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model in which each variable is regressed on its own lags and the lags of all other variables in the system. Originally proposed by Sims (1980) as a data-driven alternative to large structural macroeconomic models, VAR has become the standard workhorse for dynamic analysis in empirical economics and finance. |
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