手法を比較

	SARIMAモデル	自己回帰モデル（AR）	移動平均 (MA) モデル
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised)	1970s (popularised 1976)	1970
提唱者	Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	Box and Jenkins
種類	Seasonal time series model	Time series model	Linear time series model
原典	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744
別名	SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal component	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process	MA model, MA(q) process, moving-average process, Box-Jenkins MA
関連	5	6	5
概要	SARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics.	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.	The Moving Average model of order q — written MA(q) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear combination of the current and past random shocks (innovations). Unlike the AR model which uses lagged values of the series itself, the MA model uses lagged error terms, making it well-suited for capturing short-lived disturbances that dissipate over q periods.