手法を比較

	自己回帰和分移動平均モデル (ARIMA Model)	DCC-GARCHモデル（動学的条件付き相関）	GARCHモデル（ボラティリティ予測）
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1970	2002	1986
提唱者	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins	Robert F. Engle	Tim Bollerslev
種類	Time series forecasting model	Multivariate volatility model	Conditional volatility model
原典	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Engle, R. F. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(3), 339-350.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.
別名	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)	DCC-GARCH, Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH, Engle DCC model, multivariate DCC	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
関連	6	5	5
概要	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.	The DCC-GARCH model, introduced by Engle (2002), extends univariate GARCH to capture time-varying correlations between multiple financial time series. It decomposes the multivariate conditional covariance matrix into individual volatility processes and a dynamic correlation matrix, allowing correlations to fluctuate over time while remaining computationally tractable even with many series.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.