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	Modello Esponenziale di Grafi Aleatori (ERGM / p*)	Previsione dei Collegamenti	Modelli di Diffusione di Rete
Campo	Analisi delle reti	Analisi delle reti	Analisi delle reti
Famiglia	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Anno di origine	1986 (foundational); modern ERGM framework 1996–2007	2003	1927 (epidemiological compartmental); 2003 (social influence cascade)
Ideatore	Frank & Strauss (1986); extended by Wasserman & Pattison (1996) and Robins et al. (2007)	—	Kermack & McKendrick (SIR/SIS, 1927); Kempe, Kleinberg & Tardos (Independent Cascade, 2003)
Tipo	Probabilistic generative network model	Network inference task	Stochastic / deterministic simulation on graphs
Fonte seminale	Robins, G., Pattison, P., Kalish, Y., & Lusher, D. (2007). An introduction to exponential random graph (p*) models for social networks. Social Networks, 29(2), 173-191.	Liben-Nowell, D. & Kleinberg, J. (2007). The Link-Prediction Problem for Social Networks. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 58(7), 1019-1031.	Kermack, W.O. & McKendrick, A.G. (1927). A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, 115(772), 700-721.
Alias	ERGM, p-star model, p* model, Üstel Rastgele Graf Modeli (ERGM / p*)	Bağlantı Tahmini (Link Prediction), missing link prediction, future link prediction, edge prediction	epidemic spreading models, compartmental models, influence propagation models, Ağ Yayılım Modelleri (SIR, SIS, Independent Cascade)
Correlati	6	5	5
Sintesi	The Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM), also known as the p* model, is a statistical framework for network analysis that models the probability of an observed network as a function of its local structural features — such as reciprocity, triangles, and degree distribution. Developed from the foundational work of Frank and Strauss (1986) and extended into the modern framework by Wasserman and Pattison (1996) and Robins et al. (2007), ERGM is the inferential standard for social network analysis, capable of testing whether observed network structures arise by chance or reflect genuine social processes.	Link prediction is a network-analysis task that estimates which edges are missing from an observed graph or which edges are likely to form in the future. Formalised by Liben-Nowell and Kleinberg (2003, 2007), it covers a spectrum of approaches — from simple structural similarity indices such as Common Neighbors, Jaccard coefficient, and Adamic-Adar, to matrix factorisation, and graph neural network (GNN) methods — and is evaluated with AUC and Average Precision to account for the heavily imbalanced ratio of real to non-existing edges.	Network diffusion models are a family of compartmental and probabilistic frameworks that simulate how information, disease, or innovation spreads across a connected system. Rooted in the mathematical epidemiology of Kermack and McKendrick (1927), the SIR and SIS models partition nodes into states and track transitions driven by contact rates and recovery probabilities. The Independent Cascade and Linear Threshold models, formalised by Kempe, Kleinberg, and Tardos (2003), extend this logic to social influence, modelling how activation propagates through a network one neighbour at a time.