Módszerek összehasonlítása

	EGARCH modell (Exponenciális GARCH)	ARCH modell (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)	ARIMA modell (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)
Tudományterület	Ökonometria	Ökonometria	Ökonometria
Módszercsalád	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Keletkezés éve	1991	1982	1970
Megalkotó	Daniel B. Nelson	Robert F. Engle	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins
Típus	Volatility / conditional variance model	Conditional volatility model	Time series forecasting model
Alapmű	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370.	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
Alternatív nevek	Exponential GARCH, EGARCH, Nelson EGARCH, log-GARCH	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)
Kapcsolódó	6	6	6
Összefoglaló	The Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, introduced by Nelson (1991), extends the standard GARCH framework by modelling the logarithm of conditional variance. This ensures variance is always positive without parameter constraints and, crucially, allows negative and positive shocks to have asymmetric effects on volatility — capturing the well-known leverage effect in financial markets.	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.