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| ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) modell× | Kupola-modellek (Gauss, t, Clayton, Gumbel, Frank)× | Exponenciális GARCH (EGARCH)× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tudományterület≠ | Ökonometria | Pénzügy | Ökonometria |
| Módszercsalád | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Keletkezés éve≠ | 2015 | 1959 | 1991 |
| Megalkotó≠ | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Sklar (1959); dependence-concept treatment by Joe (1997) | Nelson |
| Típus≠ | Univariate time-series model | Dependence model | Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant) |
| Alapmű≠ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Sklar, A. (1959). Fonctions de répartition à n dimensions et leurs marges. Publications de l'Institut Statistique de l'Université de Paris, 8, 229-231. link ↗ | Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370. DOI ↗ |
| Alternatív nevek≠ | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | copulas, dependence copulas, vine copulas, Kopula Modelleri (Gaussian, t, Clayton, Gumbel, Frank) | exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH |
| Kapcsolódó≠ | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Összefoglaló≠ | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | Copula models are a family of functions that describe the dependence structure between variables separately from their individual (marginal) distributions. The foundation is Sklar's theorem (1959), which shows that any multivariate distribution can be split into its marginals plus a copula; Joe (1997) developed the modern catalogue of dependence concepts. They are central to portfolio risk and credit modelling. | EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance. |
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