השוואת שיטות

	מודל GARCH חסין	מודל ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)	מודל EGARCH (Exponential GARCH)	מודל GARCH (חיזוי תנודתיות)	רגרסיית קוונטילים
תחום	אקונומטריקה	אקונומטריקה	אקונומטריקה	אקונומטריקה	אקונומטריקה
משפחה	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
שנת המקור	1986–2013	1982	1991	1986	1978
הוגה השיטה	Boudt, Danielsson & Laurent (robust extensions); Bollerslev (standard GARCH, 1986)	Robert F. Engle	Daniel B. Nelson	Tim Bollerslev	Koenker & Bassett
סוג	Volatility model	Conditional volatility model	Volatility / conditional variance model	Conditional volatility model	Conditional quantile regression
מקור מכונן	Boudt, K., Danielsson, J., & Laurent, S. (2013). Robust forecasting of dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models. International Journal of Forecasting, 29(2), 244–257.	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.	Koenker, R. & Bassett, G., Jr. (1978). Regression Quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
כינויים	Robust GARCH, outlier-robust GARCH, heavy-tail GARCH, contamination-robust volatility model	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model	Exponential GARCH, EGARCH, Nelson EGARCH, log-GARCH	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)	conditional quantile regression, regression quantiles, Kantil Regresyon
קשורות	5	6	6	5	5
תקציר	The Robust GARCH model extends the classical GARCH framework to handle outliers and heavy-tailed innovations that commonly appear in financial return series. By down-weighting extreme observations through a robust innovation term, it produces more reliable volatility forecasts when data contain jumps, crises, or other anomalies that would otherwise distort standard GARCH estimates.	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.	The Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, introduced by Nelson (1991), extends the standard GARCH framework by modelling the logarithm of conditional variance. This ensures variance is always positive without parameter constraints and, crucially, allows negative and positive shocks to have asymmetric effects on volatility — capturing the well-known leverage effect in financial markets.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.	Quantile regression models conditional quantiles of an outcome - the median, the 25th or 75th percentile, and so on - rather than the conditional mean that OLS targets. Introduced by Koenker and Bassett in 1978, it reveals how predictors act across the whole distribution, including its tails.